The Statistics of Paul Ryan

538Projection

538Projection

Wanting to find out more about Paul Ryan, lead me to an interesting article in the NYTimes by Nate Silver that explains that there is only a 4 in 100 chance of Paul Ryan being our president.

I was intrigued by the way Silver uses statistics and found this article explaining why Romney picked Ryan as his running mate.

Thanks, Mr. Romney, for bringing me to FiveThirtyEight.com so I can be privy to the numbers behind your loss



2 Thoughts

  1. Eli Eli says:

    I just read the first article. I was disappointed that it seems to be missing a key graph to illustrate the point about Ryan’s odds. =(

    Regardless, I felt like the ultimate conclusion was a bit hard to follow, but my reading of it is that Paul Ryan actually has a very good chance to be President at some point, higher than 4 in 100. That is, his odds of becoming the NEXT President are small (4 in 100), since in that scenario Romney has to lose this election and the loss should be in way that doesn’t lead to anything unfavorable toward Ryan himself.

    But Ryan’s odds of becoming not the next President but the one after that are vey high if Romney does win (33 in 100). And his odds of becoming the President at some point in the future over all the scenarios are still pretty high (15 in 100). Given those numbers, I would say that Ryan is feeling pretty good about his future prospects right now.

  2. louise louise says:

    Darn- I want him to be right!

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